| 摘要: |
| 在发射平台运动、海浪及海流、气水介质突变、空泡溃灭等的影响下，航行体水下垂直发射呈现出干扰因素随机性强、干扰量大、弹道参数变化剧烈等特点。在分析、辨识各种干扰因素的形成机制及组成结构的基础上，建立了描述航行体水下发射过程不确定度的数学模型；介绍了近年来国际上较为热门的不确定性量化研究中的数值方法和进展，主要讨论了基于多项式混沌理论的不确定度量化方法；最后，探讨了未来航行体水下发射过程不确定性量化研究所面临的一些挑战和亟待解决的问题。 |
| 关键词: 垂直发射航行体 不确定性量化模型 数学方法 可靠性 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（51679005） |
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| Discuss of Mathematical Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Motion Process of Vertical Launched Underwater Vehicle |
| CHEN Fu,MA Gui-hui,QUAN Xiao-bo,JIANG Shuai |
| (School of Energy Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology;Beijing Institute of Astronautical Systems Engineering) |
| Abstract: |
| Considering the influential factors, such as the mobile launching platform, ocean currents and waves, the variation of the parameters of water and air, cavity collapse, the interfering factors are random and significant, and the parameters of the ballistic trajectory change so much when a vehicle is launched under water. Firstly in this paper, based on the analysis and identification of the mechanism as well as the composition structure of the various interfering factors, the uncertainty quantification model of motion process of the underwater vehicle is established. Then, the recent progress on the mathematical methods for uncertainty quantification is reviewed briefly, the emphasis will be a method based on generalized polynomial chaos. Also, some challenging and open problems for the uncertainty quantification research in motion process of launched vehicles under water will be discussed. |
| Key words: Vehicles under water Uncertainty quantification model Mathematical methods Reliability |